Wednesday, May 12, 2010

The Top Ten things You Need to Get Started Preparing

For some reason a lot of people think getting prepared costs a lot of money up front. I mean you have to have guns, gold and a 4x4 truck. Don't you? 
No, not really. Sure, those things are nice and good to have but they aren't on the most necessary list.

Like anything you can spend a lot of money getting ready for anything, but the reality is you don't need to spend big money to reach a good level of preparedness. You probably have a large amount of the most important things already, you just need to assess what you have and tweak it to last a little longer.

Imagine being stuck at home for a couple of weeks because of a pandemic or blizzard or something. A simple disaster that can happen in your area.

Food: We need to eat several times a day usually and an everyone goes to the store at least a couple of times a week. Keep your eyes out for sales on foods you normally eat and pick up an extra can or box and put it in your pantry.
A pantry doesn't have to be anything fancy: the cabinet over the sink or a shelf in the basement is a good enough place to start.
If you use milk a lot, pick up some dried milk powder and some of the canned evaporated milk, if you aren't into skim milk add a can of the evaporated milk to a jug of reconstituted milk to bring up the fat content which makes it taste a lot better.
Your first goal should be 3 days, then 2 weeks, 3 months, up to about a year per person.

Water: You don't even need to buy bottled water, just fill up some well-cleaned soda bottles or even milk jugs and store them under the sink. If you use milk jugs you'll want to date them so you can replace them every year, they tend to deteriorate after several months. 
Sometimes there is a problem with the water system and you need to boil your water to make it safe. You probably already have have a 6-8 quart pot for doing just that for cooking pasta and soups.
If you can't boil the water and it needs to be purified some pure, unscented chlorine bleach will do the job. You can use up the scented stuff in your laundry as normal but buy the unscented from now on and keep a spare bottle and rotate it through as normal. 
You need 1/4 teaspoon per gallon for clear water and 1/2 teaspoon per gallon for cloudy water. 
You'll need at least 1 gallon per person per day. Your first goal is for 3 days, then 2 weeks. Once you get up to a months storage you'll want to think about a water purification system because water is really bulky.

Shelter: Obviously, this is your primary residence, but it also includes your clothes, shoes and vehicles. Blankets, tarps and large plastic bags fall in this category too. While a tent, RV or second home would be nice, you probably already have plenty of materials on hand to construct some kind of emergency shelter.

Light: There is something very comforting about having light at night. Blackout happen pretty often so having some alternate source of light is handy.
Flashlights are great since they are easily portable. LED bulbs allow the batteries to last a lot longer then regular bulbs. Keep extra batteries on hand and check their expiration dates yearly.
Candles work fine too, though you have to worry a bit about them tipping over and setting the place on fire. Short and wide is better then tall and skinny but use what you have. Make sure to have lighters and matches and a fire extinguisher or small bucket of water or sand, or box of baking soda nearby.
OIl, propane, kerosene or gas lanterns are nice, but those are the kind of thing to get later after you've got all the basics covered. But if you see one at a garage sale, go for it.

Heat and Fire: I bet you have this one covered already: 79% of homes have a grill of some kind in the backyard. This lets you heat food and water, and also bricks to take inside to warm your beds. An extra cylinder of propane or a few bags of charcoal would add a lot of comfort in times of emergency.
Camp stoves are nice if you are looking for portability, but again this is something to watch for at a garage sale. A wood burning stove or fireplace in you home would be good but terribly expensive to retrofit.

Medical supplies: This includes things like prescription medications, glasses, canes, and a first aid kit, of course. 
Don't forget policy and contact information for your health insurance, doctor, pediatrician, dentist, optician, and local hospitals. Everyone in the family should keep a copy in your wallet and your cell phone.

Tool kit: Things break, and fixing them is often worth your while, if you have the tools. Installing a shelf, fixing a cabinet, getting your car on the road again are all things you can do.
A home tool kit doesn't need to be fancy or any fancy boxes. A sturdy rubber tub will do. A hammer and some nails, a flat/phillips screwdriver and screws, a saw, a crescent wrench and some pliers will go a long way to dealing with most home problems. 
A plumbing kit needs some specialized tools for that.
Your car kit will need things depending on the kind of car you have but you should be able to change the oil and filters and brake pads. The mechanic's manual is important for that.

Document kit: This is something a lot of people completely ignore, but you should organize your family's personal documents, Social Security cards, birth certificates, contracts, debts, accounts, leases, mortgages, diplomas, insurance policies, titles and so on. These should all be organized and copied so you have a backup set somewhere off-site. The originals should be stored in a fire safe or safe deposit box.

Financial: If you are in debt, you need to retire that debt as soon as you can. It is holding you down, it is slavery. List you debts, expenses and income and work out a plan with your family to get out of debt. Dave Ramsey's debt snowball is a great plan to do just that.

Knowledge: Knowledge is power, pure and simple. You can get a lot of knowledge on the internet and from the library. Learn as much as you can, so you can make better decisions later. The most valuable knowledge comes from other people's experience, that costs way less then learn from your own experience.
You do still want a few books in house so they are available when you need them. A first-aid manual, a local edible plants guidebook, your car's mechanics manual, a home repair book, a general survival book and an all-around cookbook that covers as many different ingredients as possible.

Once you have good coverage on these items then you can worry about getting gold, guns and MRE's.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

New Roundup

The First Things Many People Think Of When It is Time To Prepare, Which Are Wrong

Most people start to prepare when the time for preparation is over. When the floodwaters are lapping at their doorstep, or when they see the storm bearing down on them. 

That is when they head to the store to battle it out over the last case of bottled water and loaf of bread.

When there is a call to evacuate they all head straight to the Interstate turning it into a parking lot.

It isn't that the first idea that pops into your head is bad by itself, it is just that almost everyone else has the exact same idea and there is no system in place that will handle 80% of the people all doing the same thing at the same time.
These ideas also tend not be be in the top ten most important things to do to prepare before the disaster happens.
Sure, they are usually something that needs doing or having at some point but there are usually far more important things to do first.

Gold is a big one. Unprepared people will go into debt to buy gold, which is insanity. It is far, far more important to get out of debt then it is to buy gold. Having gold and being in debt is much worse then having no gold and being debt free. Once you retire all your debt you can start investing in gold and other commodities.
A garden and food storage is far more important then owning gold, you can eat food, you can't eat gold.

Survival skills is another major subject where people jump to wilderness survival first thing.  They say they'll pack everyone up and go into the wilderness and survive of the land, like a real man. Some even say they'll leave they families to go it alone shooting game and somehow surviving by themselves. That tends to fail in the long term.
The next disaster to strike will probably not be the bringing down of  civilization kind. Are your ready to survive the most likely disasters in your city? Which may be as simple as a blackout or blizzard.

Another thing people jump to on the subject of survival is guns. On the one hand you have some people who think that if they have their EBR and plenty of ammunition they can steal whatever they need. They'll even announce this is their only plan if the topic comes up in conversation. These are coworkers, neighbors, friends and even family. They seem to be under the delusion that a gun makes them all-powerful. On the other hand they don't seem to realize that about half of the households in the country are also armed. Guns are a useful tool but they are not the be all end all some people think they are.

In conclusion, it isn't that these are bad things to have to prepare with, but they are not on the top ten list of essential items. Cover the basics first: food, water, shelter, medical supplies, financial, communications, transportation, heat, light and fire. Then you can worry about adding these other things.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Build a Financial Lifeboat

Do you think the economy is getting better or worse?
If you think the economy is getting better, do you think that there could be another recession sometime in the next decade?
If you think the economy is getting worse, how bad can it get?

U.S. Debt Shock May Hit In 2018, Maybe As Soon As 2013: Moody's - IBD - Investors.com

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) certainly thinks things will get worse in the next few years. Losing our AAA credit rating would be very bad as that would cause interest payments to jump. Like all those people who got the ARM mortgages and could barely make the minimums then the rates reset and then they were underwater on their loans and they had to either go into bankruptcy or sell at a loss.

The country could go into bankruptcy and default on its loans. The government has an option the people don't and that is print more money but that would lead to inflation and possibly even hyper-inflation.

There are also two other options but they are only temporary:
Create a new global currency, and cap-and-trade would be one way of doing that, with all the derivates and insurance instruments of the housing bubble, which will only cause another bubble with an even bigger crash at the end, but by that point the current leadership will be out of power and it will be someone else watch. So they'll get the blame.

Or they could reset the dollar and back it with land, which the federal government owns a lot of. Germany did that during the Weimar Republic. That didn't turn out too well in the end.

So what can you do?

Build an emergency fund. They're doing it for the EU. It needs to be big enough to cover a major car repair, or major appliance replacement. A bout of hyper-inflation can wipe this out but that hasn't arrived yet.

The most important thing is to get out of debt. Debt is slavery. Inflation always puts the debtor behind the curve.

Store up food and plant a garden. "That's financial preparedness?" Yes, hyper-inflation can wipe out savings and dividends, but it can't touch canned goods and seeds. Growing food takes practice so get started now. There is still time to get plants in the ground this year.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Is you home a lifeboat or a boat anchor around your neck?

If there was a virulent, and fatal pandemic, and a quarantine was imposed how long would you be able to feed your family and be comfortable?
If you were in an accident and were stuck in a wheelchair for a couple of months, would you have to live in your living room?
If you lost your job, how long before you would need to sell your home or lose it to foreclosure?

The Volokh Conspiracy The Further Left You Are the Less You Know About Economics:

The Volokh Conspiracy The Further Left You Are the Less You Know About Economics:: "Those identifying as “libertarian” and “very conservative” were the most knowledgeable about basic economics. Those identifying as “Progressive” and “Liberal” were the worst."

This explains so much.

I remember my Econ101 class, it was very annoying since I never really felt like I was learning anything. Some of the stuff seemed like it would make sense to know if I was a Fortune 500 CFO or SecTreas or a Fed banker but as an engineer, not so much.

I wish they had taught something more down to earth like how banks and credit cards really worked and how to buy a car and house.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Roubini Says Rising Sovereign Debt Leads to Defaults (Correct) - BusinessWeek

Roubini Says Rising Sovereign Debt Leads to Defaults (Correct) - BusinessWeek: "“Eventually, the fiscal problems of the U.S. will also come to the fore,” Roubini said during the panel discussion. “The risk of something serious happening in the U.S. in the next two or three years is going to be significant” because there’s “no willingness in Washington to do anything” unless forced by the bond markets."

Whenever it happens it will be bad. It can be inflation, it myy be hyperinflation, it could even be deflation. None of those are good choices.

What would you do if the money you have lost a quarter or half its value? What would happen to your job or business?